The wisdom of the crowd predicts that there's roughly a 72% chance of ethereum being above $500 by the end of 2018.
It seems that if you sell shares on this market, you'd effectively be shorting ethereum. If you buy shares, you'd effectively be going long. However, shouldn't a long position cost more of a premium since you're betting in ethereum?
Buy 10 shares at .72 per share = 7.2 ETH @ 460 = $3,312
If you won, you'd receive 10 ETH @ 500 = $5,000 (rather than just 2.8 ETH @ 460 since the price of ETH went up).
Given this, shouldn't more people buy YES shares?
I apologize in advance if my thoughts seem a bit disorganized, I didn't get too much sleep. Wanted to get some rough ideas out there to see what you and some others think about them.
Appreciate you playing devil's advocate. I haven't given this idea more than a couple of hours of thought, so it definitely needs a lot of refinement.
First things first - this would be a blockchain forums token. It'd be used for several purposes, mainly to curate posts on the forum and other relevant information to the space such as upcoming icos, airdrops, tokens, etc. We've got a lot planned that meshes well with a token curated registry.
So I think requiring people to pay to post will mean there will be no users.
Yeah, I agree, haven't figured out a way around this other than minting tokens to cover ethereum gas costs and the cost to post for the first x users (i.e. applying a decay function to the minting process). Need to do some research on how steemit does this. It's been a while since I've read their wp.
I think that's a conflict of interest and that people will opt for short term gains.
Other users can participate in voting for the challenge, but in general a very small amount of people vote for things. You can see this happening in real world democracies (low turnover), you can also see this happening in steemit and EOS(most people just hold tokens).
Also, that creates a scenario where a Cabal of people might group together to win challenges in order to make $$$.
A cabal would destroy this kind of system for sure. I'm still not sure how to address this and will give it more thought. I like the idea of some kind of hybrid system wherein token holders receive some additional benefits/powers that aren't available to non-token holders. This may work really well initially, but it'd be very cool to fully decentralize this site (including the hosting of content through ipfs/filecoin/steemit like model). Ideally, all token holders would benefit somehow just by holding the token and by participating in the network.
I imagine that turnover would be pretty low, which I think is fine unless someone wanted to abuse the system by leveraging their capital to destroy quality posts. However, if the staking mechanism is done properly, by performing this kind of attack, their tokens should decrease in value. If the incentives align, and if the staking mechanism is well thought out, bad actors should not be incentivized to attack the network in this manner. See the bottom of this post on how to address this specific type of attack.
What about putting ads on blockchainforums and making tokens some sort of adblock?
I like that idea, but want to also stray away from things like banner ads since they're quite annoying. There are plenty of other ways to monetize the site that are win/win for everyone involved. For example, one could build a registry of airdrops where users who opt-in to receive broadcasts will also have their wallets automatically filled with tokens of the broadcasting party (ie it costs the broadcaster's token to publish messages to users who have opted in).
Another idea to consider is a decentralized registry of advertisements. Similar to https://publisher.adchain.com/gx, we could create a DAO of users that vote on advertisements to be published on the site. The flow would go as follows:
- Advertiser stakes token to publish an advertisement for approval.
- DAO votes on whether or not to approve the ad.
- If approved, the amount staked is distributed to anyone who voted on the advertisement.
However, we'd still need to address the fact that the DAO could just vote to support all ads to maximize their revenue. A prediction market may work in this case - users of the DAO need to predict whether or not an ad will be approved. The winning side receives the losing side's tokens.
What about keeping all the forum free except having a special section for token holders? Maybe requiring token holders to have coins to use the 'jobs' subsection?
This seems like it'd work just fine, but will have to give it some more thought.
Perhaps a good solution to most of the attack vectors in the aforementioned is to allow users to stake tokens for a certain time period. The longer the token is staked for, the more functionality, sway, and power the user has over the site. For example, if a token a staked for 1 year, it may be used to vote on posts, to curate lists, to make entries into lists, and to vote on ads. However, if staked for 6 months, only voting is allowed - one cannot submit new ads, or add to lists.
Also, have you heard of memeeconomy by district0x?
It looks interesting, but honestly speaking I prefer Steemit system.
Actually the system we have now it a bit similar. I.e. I just upvoted you and you got +4 to your reputation
But when you upvoted me (a while ago) I got +11 because you have much bigger reputation here (similar to Steem power on Steemit)
May be technically something new can be developed on the EOS system in future?..
This is just a basic concept and can be expanded. Another example is applying this to curating a list of upcoming icos/airdrops that aren't scams.
I'm not too familiar with this concept, as I've only done a couple of hours of research on it.
How I imagine it playing out is that users submit posts that are immediately visible, but have to stake tokens to make that post.
Then a challenge button appears next to their post while they are still in the challenge period. During the challenge period, anyone can vote on either side. The winning side gets the losing side's stake.