Bitcoin Future as compare to other Cryptocurrencies

I have seen Bitcoin to fall at the very start of this year... and it is still struggling to attain its highest price peak, What do you have to say about bitcoin's future after all this?

Hey @jerryred069. Welcome to the forum; congrats on your first post.
I've moved your topic into the correct section.

This is a great question and there's currently US$418 billion riding on the answer. And that answer really depends on how long you're talking about. My guess about next week is as good as anyone's and all cryptocurrency is extremely sensitive to news, fake or not, because the market is very speculative. That's because most bitcoin owners only want it to sell it for more later. Only a few of the bitcoins being held are intended for use as a medium of exchange.

Bitcoin was severely undervalued as a functional utility for many years. Then as it became accepted by vendors, its value came up. At some point, and due to its high level of security when managed well, it became something to invest in. That was fine and the price rose slowly and reflected its value. Then as bitcoin went more mainstream, especially in 2017, it became a high-risk, high-profit investment. And the risk and profits spiked through the roof. At that point, many people said bitcoin was in a bubble. That the price did not reflect its value, and that soon it would pop.

And it did pop. But not really. When bubbles that have zero value and many investors hoping to sell before the value collapses pop, it always drops the value back to zero. But with bitcoin the pop, the value dropped from $19,700 to $12,900. A drop to just 65% of its peak value. Then gradually it continued to fall to $6,200 over 51 days. That's not really a pop but a deflation showing a considerable amount of market confidence in a future rise to previous investment prices.

So history shows us that at the time of the 'pop' bitcoin was over valued. But it also shows us that investors believed in the future value of bitcoin and were confident it would recover. This seems to be reasonable because bitcoin has functional value. But it also has significant problems.

The functional value of bitcoin is split between a means of storing value outside of any government's fiscal policy, and as a medium of exchange. Because bitcoin has first-to-market advantage, it is likely to continue to be a good means of storing value. But as a medium of exchange, it needs to be widely and frequently used. Bitcoin's current architecture does not scale to that level of usage and controls it by excessive transaction fees when it is too busy. Until that problem is solved, it will never replace fiat currency for daily use. And fixing that problem is hard because the people who vote on solutions are not the users who benefit from it being solved. It is the miners who benefit from high transaction fees that are the gate keepers to improvements that might solve this problem. So in that regard, the future of bitcoin is bleak.

So in a nutshell. Until the flippening when bitcoin loses its first-to-market advantage, it will remain a good store of value and continue to increase in value as more people understand and trust it, pushing up demand. But it will never get to incredibly high values over $100,000 or so, until it solves its core architectural problems. Unless of course, another speculative frenzy takes off, and then it will definitely go higher than the last peak, and by my assessment of human nature it could triple it and come close to the US$60,000 mark. This is because a speculative frenzy is only capped by what people can believe, and three times the last peak is about their limit.

I hope this answers your question @jerryred069. Ask me if you want to know something more about it.

Note: I am not a financial or investment professional and my speculation is self-taught opinion only. Please use your own judgement to assess any investment.

@jerryred069 said in Bitcoin Future as compare to other Cryptocurrencies:

I have seen Bitcoin to fall at the very start of this year... and it is still struggling to attain its highest price peak, What do you have to say about bitcoin's future after all this?

Bitcoin isn't the future, but blockchain is....

As I wrote in the other thread on the future of Bitcoin, it's not going to just fall off the face of the earth. However, I do think we can expect to see a gradual decline as newer, better-adapted projects innovate and build upon Bitcoin's drawbacks.

We can't discount the fact that Bitcoin will be hard at work to fix their own issues (scaling, etc.) and improve their own technology, but Bitcoin as we know it probably isn't going to the long-term solution. In my opinion, too much price speculation and not enough utility (use cases) with BTC.

While BTC has first mover advantage, there are other cryptocurrencies that provide more tangible value to its users and do a better job of problem solving. For this reason, I believe Bitcoin will be challenged for its #1 position in market cap within the next year.... and I think the most likely challenger is ETH at this point.

What do YOU think about BTC's future, @jerryred069? Would love to hear more.