The wisdom of the crowd predicts that there's roughly a 72% chance of ethereum being above $500 by the end of 2018.

It seems that if you sell shares on this market, you'd effectively be shorting ethereum. If you buy shares, you'd effectively be going long. However, shouldn't a long position cost more of a premium since you're betting in ethereum?


Buy 10 shares at .72 per share = 7.2 ETH @ 460 = $3,312
If you won, you'd receive 10 ETH @ 500 = $5,000 (rather than just 2.8 ETH @ 460 since the price of ETH went up).

Given this, shouldn't more people buy YES shares?